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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd