🔗 Share this article

Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest shock.

However this year's competition is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still