A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
